In the last issue of the Raven I presented an essay, Hiker Flow on Franconia Ridge: A Fluid Dynamics Analogy. This week I offer an interactive visitor flow model above that illustrates how hikers flow across the Franconia Ridge Loop, based on the trail counter data the USFS has been collecting over the last ten years. How it works:
This model simulates the flow of hikers along the Franconia Ridge Loop under different management strategies. Use the sliders and checkboxes above to explore how total use, timed entry, or visitor limits affect peak densities and critical thresholds.
There are three curves representing three management approaches:
Experiment with the model — you can change visitor numbers, thresholds, and management approaches, and see how they interact.
This is an idealized representation, but it reflects what we see: weekends with 1,000+ visitors, a critical density around 140–150/hour, and bell-curve distribution across the day (though not always smooth). The critical hour shifts with the season.
One key insight: timed entry can reduce the peak density while preserving visitor volume, but pushes many more hikers past the critical hour — often into darkness — raising safety risks on a loop that already experiences frequent accidents and rescues.
Finally, why is critical density adjustable? Because it depends on trail design, maintenance, and stewardship presence. Wider tread, clear boundaries, durable surfaces, and alpine stewards can raise the threshold. Conversely, poor design, deferred maintenance, or lack of stewardship can lower it.